Vietnam has an opportunity as China is looking to reduce imports of modified starch from Thailand and increase imports of modified tapioca starch from Vietnam. However, Thailand still has strong growth in exports of modified starch to Japan, South Korea, the US and Europe.
1. Database
It is difficult to collect accurate data, because each government has a different way of collecting and publishing data. The numbers based on each data can vary from 2-5%, so please forgive me if I make any mistakes in the analysis process.
The data in this article is based on quite reputable sources including:
- Thai Cassava Association
- Export and Import Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam
- BACI, CEPII (International Trade Analysis Center, French Center for Research and Expertise in World Economy)
Of these data, BACI, CEPII data is preferred because it is international in nature and is widely used in market research. When comparing data between BACI, CEPII and data from Thai and Vietnamese government agencies, the results differ from 2-5%.
2. Cassava growing area of Thailand and Vietnam
According to the Government Newspaper, in 2021, the cassava area nationwide reached 528,000 hectares, mainly concentrated in 5 main regions: Northern midlands and mountainous areas, North Central region, South Central Coast, Central Highlands and Southeast. The total cassava output nationwide is estimated at nearly 10.7 million tons with an average yield of 20.3 tons/ha.
According to the Productivity Report of the Thai Cassava Association, in 2021, Thailand’s cassava area reached 1.6 million hectares, the total output is estimated at nearly 33.5 million tons with an average yield of 20.8 tons/ha.
3. Cassava Exports from Thailand and Vietnam
According to statistics from the Thai Cassava Association, in 2022, Thailand exported 3.759.268 tons of cassava starch worth $1.768.326.935; and 1.139.087 tons of modified starch worth $920.220.025.
In the same year, Thailand exported 6.277.974 tons of cassava chips, pellets, pulp, and tapioca pearls worth $1.536.070.481.
If cassava starch, cassava chips, pellets, powder, and tapioca pearls are included, the total value of Thailand’s cassava exports is 11.176.329 tons worth $4.224.617.441.
According to statistics from the Import-Export Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam, issued on December 20, 2022, in 11 months of 2022, Vietnam exported 2.182.691 tons of cassava starch worth $1.052.340.000. Vietnam’s report does not have a specific figure for modified starch.
Also in this year, Vietnam exported 693.634 tons of cassava chips worth $203.171.000; and 1.915 tons of fresh cassava worth $2.434.000.
If cassava starch, cassava chips, and processed fresh cassava roots are included, the total export value of cassava and cassava products from Vietnam is 2.878.240 tons worth $1.257.945.000.
4. Export markets of Vietnam and Thailand
4.1. Export markets of tapioca starch of Vietnam and Thailand
In 2022, Vietnam exported 1.15 billion USD of tapioca starch, becoming the second largest starch exporter in the world. In the same year, tapioca starch was the 60th largest export product in Vietnam. The main destinations of tapioca starch exported from Vietnam were: China ($1.09 billion), Taiwan ($20.1 million), the Philippines ($14.3 million), the United States ($4.59 million) and Malaysia ($4.34 million).
Vietnam’s fastest growing tapioca starch export markets in the period 2021-2022 are China ($174 million), the Philippines ($11 million) and Taiwan ($5.38 million).
In 2022, Thailand exported $1.84 billion worth of tapioca starch, making it the world’s largest starch exporter. In the same year, tapioca starch was Thailand’s 30th largest export product. The main destinations for tapioca starch exports from Thailand were: China ($1.09 billion), Indonesia ($145 million), Taipei ($144 million), Malaysia ($84.2 million), and the United States ($79 million).
Thailand’s fastest growing starch export markets in 2021-2022 were Indonesia ($119 million), Malaysia ($37.4 million), and the Philippines ($25.5 million).
4.2. Modified starch export markets of Vietnam and Thailand
In 2022, Thailand exported 991 million USD of modified starch, becoming the world’s 1st largest modified starch exporter. In the same year, modified starch was the 54th largest export product in Thailand.
The main export markets for Thai modified starch are: Japan ($258 million), China ($219 million), Indonesia ($86.4 million), South Korea ($79.1 million) and the United States ($63 million).
Thailand’s fastest growing modified starch export markets in 2021-2022 are Japan ($27.9 million), the United States ($21.5 million) and South Korea.
In 2022, Vietnam exported $160 million worth of modified starch, becoming the 9th largest exporter of modified starch in the world. In the same year, modified starch was the 315th largest export product in Vietnam.
The main export markets for Vietnamese modified starch are: China ($109 million), Japan ($25.6 million), Taipei ($4.99 million), the Philippines ($4.36 million) and South Korea ($3.81 million).
Vietnam’s fastest growing modified starch export markets in 2021-2022 are China ($32.5 million), Japan ($5.54 million) and Russia ($2.71 million).
5. Growth over time (2000-2022)
5.1. Cassava starch exports of Vietnam and Thailand from 2000-2022
From 2000 to 2022, Thailand and Vietnam have experienced remarkable growth in tapioca starch production and export. According to data from BACI, CEPII, the total value of Thailand’s tapioca starch exports is $1.8 billion (2022), $1.68 billion (2021), $1.17 billion (2020), $1.27 billion (2019) and $1.38 billion (2018).
Similarly, the total value of Vietnam’s tapioca starch exports is $1.15 billion (2022), $950 million (2021), $833 million (2020), $874 million (2019), and $754 million (2018).
5.2. Modified tapioca starch exports of Vietnam and Thailand from 2000 – 2022
According to data from the International Trade Analysis Center, the French Center for Research and Expertise in the World Economy, Thailand is the world’s largest exporter of modified starch. To achieve this, Thailand has focused on developing the modified starch industry very early, many experts believe that this is thanks to the financial and technological support of Japanese enterprises.
It can be seen that exports to Japan always account for a high level of over 30% of Thailand’s total modified starch export value, followed by China (19-22%) and Indonesia (9-10%), South Korea (7-8%). The fastest growing market is the United States (growth of 51.8% in 5 years)
Vietnam has had miraculous development in recent years with outstanding growth thanks to exports of this item to China, Taiwan and Japan. However, the modified starch industry in Vietnam is not commensurate with its inherent potential.
In the early period (2000-2017), most of the modified starch in Vietnam was exported to Japan (over 50%), until 2017 when Chinese enterprises joined in, Vietnam’s modified starch exports to China changed significantly.
In 2021, for the first time, China accounted for nearly 70% of Vietnam’s total modified starch export value. Many experts believe that the reason is that China wants to escape its dependence on modified starch from Thailand, and China has also researched and mastered many modern modified starch processing methods.
6. Conclusion
The export of tapioca starch has stabilized the market, Vietnam has become the second largest starch exporter in the world, demonstrating the strong growth and determination of the government and businesses. However, as many experts say “putting all eggs in one basket”, Vietnam’s exports still depend heavily on China, accounting for more than 92% of the total export value. Markets outside of China such as the US, Japan, Korea, EU, and neighboring countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia have very low export value.
Vietnam is having a good opportunity from the Chinese modified starch market, with signs of Vietnam’s modified starch exports growing remarkably since 2017. By 2022, China replaced Japan as Vietnam’s largest modified starch importer, accounting for 70%.
Many experts believe that the reason China researches and develops the production of modified starch is to reduce its dependence on importing modified starch from Thailand, exporting modified starch to China through joint ventures or using Chinese technology has not brought much benefit to Vietnam.
Vietnam needs to promote modified starch production technology, especially to own the modified starch production technology, this can be done through joint ventures, technology transfer, or self-research and development like some Thai enterprises.
My research article may still have errors, I look forward to your comments in the comment section. Thank you!
Author: Nguyen Bao Nguyen,